Medical source data

The Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator is designed to help you assess the likelihood of cancer being diagnosed after undergoing testing. To have confidence in the individual calculators you need to know that the underlying data is based on robust evidence gathered from the medical results of thousands of European men.

Evidence based on world’s largest prostate cancer screening study

Aged 55-74, these were men from Rotterdam in The Netherlands, already taking part in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. The ERSPC is the world’s largest study to find out whether the early detection of cancer by means of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing could save lives. The Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator applies to men aged 55-74. Younger men have a much lower chance of being diagnosed with prostate cancer and this age group was therefore not included in the ERSPC study on which the data has been based.

For further information: Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator verification data (more) and ERSPC published findings (more)

Note on men of African descent

The calculations do not specifically apply to men of African descent because insufficient numbers were available for inclusion in the original European study to obtain meaningful data. However, as this group of men have a genetically higher risk of developing prostate cancer, you may find the information provided by Prostate Cancer UK a useful source of specific help and guidance.

This does not mean the calculators may not be useful to you if you are over 55. But caution is needed because the calculator may underestimate your risk of (aggressive) prostate cancer.

As part of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, PSA test results from more than 20,000 men in the Rotterdam area were assessed and monitored over a twelve-year period. From this group, 6,288 men aged 55-74 met the strict criteria for inclusion in the separate risk calculator project.

These men also had two extra diagnostic tests – a rectal examination and an ultrasound to check for abnormalities and measure the volume of their prostate gland. Out of this group, 29% required additional investigations. Once these had been completed, only 6% were found to have prostate cancer (see table below).

Table showing results of this cancer detection study (on which Risk Calculator is based)

Medical Process No. Participants % of sample
Examined 6,288 100
Abnormal findings 1,823 29
Prostate Cancer found 373 6
(no cancer)
5,915 94

Contact Information

Monique Roobol
Risk Calculator Administrator

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