Medical Source data

The Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator is designed to help assess the likelihood of cancer being diagnosed in your patients after they have undergone testing.

The underlying data is based on robust evidence gathered from the medical results of 6,288 Dutch men, aged between 55 and 74. These were from the Rotterdam arm of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, the world’s largest study to evaluate whether the early detection of cancer by means of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing could save lives.

Further information:

Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, scientific research papers (more)
ERSPC published findings (more)

The Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator is designed to help men aged 55-74. Younger men have a much lower chance of being diagnosed with prostate cancer and were therefore not included in the original European study conducted by ERSPC on which the data has been based.

Note on men of African descent

The calculations do not currently apply to men of African descent because insufficient numbers were available for inclusion in the original European study to obtain meaningful data. However, the calculators can still be used for men aged over 55 in this group, but caution is needed as the calculator may underestimate the risk of (aggressive) prostate cancer.

The PSA test results from more than 20,000 men in the Rotterdam arm of the ERSPC study were assessed and monitored over a 12-year period. From that group, 6,288 men aged 55-74 met the strict criteria for inclusion in the separate risk calculator project. They also had additional diagnostic tests – a rectal examination and an ultrasound to check for abnormalities and measure the volume of their prostate gland.

Out of this group, 29% required further investigative tests and once these had been completed, only 6% were found to have prostate cancer (see table below).

Table showing results of the cancer detection study (on which Risk Calculator is based)

Medical Process No. Participants % of sample
Examined 6,288 100
Abnormal findings 1,823 29
Prostate Cancer found 373 6
(no cancer)
5,915 94

Contact Information

Monique Roobol
Risk Calculator Administrator

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